EIA WPSR Summary for week ending 7-25-25
Summary
Crude: +7.7 MMB
SPR: +0.2 MMB
Cushing: +0.7 MMB
Gasoline: -2.7 MMB
Distillate: +3.6 MMB
Jet: -2.1 MMB
Ethanol: +0.3 MMB
Propane: +1.1 MMB
Other Oil: -0.6 MMB
Total: +7.1 MMB
Bearish report. Although refiners continue to run hot, modeled product ticked up. US crude exports also cratered and there’s very significant amount of “unaccounted for crude oil” this week. The EIA’s product demand proxy is suggesting record consumer demand though.
Spot WTI is currently pricing $69. Spot prices have improved but remain discounted in relation to estimated fair value based on a price model derived from reported EIA inventories.
Crude
US Crude oil supply built by 7.7 MMB. Crude inventories are currently 6% below the seasonal average. They just ticked above seasonal 2022 levels.
0.2 MMB were added to the SPR.
US crude imports were down slightly on the week.
US crude exports, again, cratered. Independent ship trackers showed exports were down. But the level shouldn’t have been that low. Expect a make-up in the following weeks.
Unaccounted for crude jumped to the second highest level of the year. There is little explanation besides anecdotal field reports that blending has again increased.
The EIA crude production model showed an increase. Tomorrow, the monthly EIA 914 and declines are expected. Subscribers, expect a note tomorrow with this data.
Cushing
Crude storage in Cushing, OK, built by 0.7 MMB week on week. Cushing inventories have built off tank bottoms but still remain absolutely and seasonally low.
Gasoline
Gasoline was on the few bright spots in this report. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.7 MMB and are about 1% below the seasonal 5-year average.
Distillate
Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.6 MMB last week and are about 16% below the seasonal 5-year average. Refiners have really been pushing hard to fill the distillate deficit. Distillate inventories just pass seasonal 2022 this week.
Jet
Kerosene type jet fuels drew by 2.1 MMB. This is a significant weekly draw on jet fuel. Kerosene inventories approach average levels.
Ethanol
Ethanol inventories increased 0.3 MMB week-on-week. Inventories remain above seasonal averages.
Propane
Propane/propylene inventories built by 1.1 MMB, in-line with their normal seasonal trend.
Other Oil
Other oil drew by 0.6 MMB. Other inventories are above average but appear to have started their normal seasonal draw early.
Total Commercial Inventory
Total commercial inventory built by 7.1 MMB, mostly due to low US exports and high unaccounted for oil.
Natural Gas
Natural gas inventories are above average but following their normal seasonal trajectory.
Refiners
US refiners continue to process significant amounts of crude oil each week.
The EIA’s product demand proxy suggest US consumer demand is at record levels.
Transportation inventories remain low.
Simple cracks have come off their recent highs but remain healthy.
Discussion
Spot prices continued their rally today even after this bearish report. That’s odd. It’s generally considered bullish though when prices rise on bad news. This suggests much pessimism is already priced in.
Perhaps crude is getting a bump from speculation on developments with Russia. Yesterday, President Trump claimed that the US would begin implementing additional tariffs on Russia in 10 days if Moscow shows no progress toward a cease-fire. Additional penalties on India are allegedly being considered, for purchasing Russian crude oil. News flow focuses on this development; however prices were already rising prior.
OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) met earlier in the week and reiterated that they recommend the planned August production increase remains on track. The next meeting isn’t until October 1.
The Dallas Reserve reported that their industry executive survey showed that producers continue to expect shale drilling to contract as costs continue to rise. Produced water disposal also remains a challenge in the Permian.
Energy equites were down on the day. However, they’ve been quietly showing some recent strength even at these prices. 2025 Q2 earnings season has started. Producer revenues have been impacted by crude prices. No one is issuing guidance for near-term growth. Remember, the US was one of the only countries where growth was expected this year.
Concerns remain around China. China has been importing significant amounts of crude. Chinese inventories have risen. It’s difficult to determine if these are strategic petroleum reserve barrels or normal supply storage as China does not differential between the two. Some are concerned about the health of the physical market if China slows purchasing and storing. While this is a valid concern, worth monitoring, it is not an issue currently.
Not investment advice. Informational purposes only. No specific positioning or security recommendations are intended. Sources are cited when available but accuracy of 3rd party data cannot be guaranteed.
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