This weekend I was reading the 1998 DOE paper on inventory dynamics and the 2004 NPC supplement + your linefill piece from last year. One of the counterintuitive things that really stood out was that if a pipeline is built the overall crude inventory increases, on paper, but its not drawable inventory so relative amount of drawable inventory actually decreases! Tricky
It's too bad the EIA doesn't publish the Working and Net Available Shell Storage Capacity report anymore :(
Yes, I wish they'd provide a current copy of that report too. There previously was a US pipeline database with existing, in-construction and planned projects. I need to dig and see if they scrapped that too.
Do we know what linefill quantity looks like pre-2014 (2011). It seems like the only data point published by EIA is the 60m bbls that have been added since 2011. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44056
Yes. The EIA used to publish a report called "Working and Net Available Shell Storage Capacity." It had linefill volumes through early 2024. But this report was discountinued. 51 MMB of linefill was added from 2014 to 2024.
Thanks so much. Linefill is indicated at 135,742. Difference between working storage capacity (831,542) and shell storage capacity (683,748) is 147,794. So about $283M for tank bottom. Seems like most folks in the filed put the min about 70-100M higher than this 2024 report indicates. Do you know what accounts for the difference?
More tanks and pipelines have been built since 2024 that aren’t included in that report. That’s why an updated report would be ideal but the EIA has discontinued that publication. The lowest crude inventory in recent history was ~394 MMB in 2018. The lowest prior to that was 2014 at 319 MMB. Much more midstream infrastructure has been build since 2014.
Spot on! Thanks for the photo of Cushing which is at the operational minimum of ~20mb. It can go further, to ~15mb. But some tanks are likely already at bottom and shut down. I wrote about Cushing. Click on my name and you can find the Cushing story.
This weekend I was reading the 1998 DOE paper on inventory dynamics and the 2004 NPC supplement + your linefill piece from last year. One of the counterintuitive things that really stood out was that if a pipeline is built the overall crude inventory increases, on paper, but its not drawable inventory so relative amount of drawable inventory actually decreases! Tricky
It's too bad the EIA doesn't publish the Working and Net Available Shell Storage Capacity report anymore :(
Yes, I wish they'd provide a current copy of that report too. There previously was a US pipeline database with existing, in-construction and planned projects. I need to dig and see if they scrapped that too.
Great work and insight. This lines up with why Rory Johnston estimates tank bottoms to be around 400M
Rory is a reliable source. He's rarely flustered. Perhaps people should pay attention when he is.
was this in an interview or one of his articles? tia
Thanks Tim. I like math. I don't like Tool, but I will listen for you when my calls come in.
Tool was one of my favorite bands when I was in high school so it has a nostalgic effect for me. I listen to much less Tool and do much more math now.
Do we know what linefill quantity looks like pre-2014 (2011). It seems like the only data point published by EIA is the 60m bbls that have been added since 2011. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44056
Yes. The EIA used to publish a report called "Working and Net Available Shell Storage Capacity." It had linefill volumes through early 2024. But this report was discountinued. 51 MMB of linefill was added from 2014 to 2024.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/storagecapacity/
Thanks so much. Linefill is indicated at 135,742. Difference between working storage capacity (831,542) and shell storage capacity (683,748) is 147,794. So about $283M for tank bottom. Seems like most folks in the filed put the min about 70-100M higher than this 2024 report indicates. Do you know what accounts for the difference?
More tanks and pipelines have been built since 2024 that aren’t included in that report. That’s why an updated report would be ideal but the EIA has discontinued that publication. The lowest crude inventory in recent history was ~394 MMB in 2018. The lowest prior to that was 2014 at 319 MMB. Much more midstream infrastructure has been build since 2014.
Always appreciate your work Tim 🫡
Spot on! Thanks for the photo of Cushing which is at the operational minimum of ~20mb. It can go further, to ~15mb. But some tanks are likely already at bottom and shut down. I wrote about Cushing. Click on my name and you can find the Cushing story.
Great read as always Tim.
"How much of the current 441 MMB is unavailable due to the inclusion of linefill and tank bottoms?" What would be a reasonable number? 10-20%?
Also, love the pun in the song title :-) Quite the banger too!
I don't think anyone knows. I estimate things get pretty tight around 400 MMB. I'd be surprised if we can draw to 350 MMB. But that's spectaculative.