> “Crude supplies should have peaked for the year.”
In your graphs where you make this comment, I don’t see how you come to that conclusion, with most later months on each year timeline trending higher later. What am I missing?
Apologies for the late response. I need to turn on notifications for comments.
Ignore 2020. The COVID year was anomalous. 2022 had the enormous SPR draw which will not be repeated.
As we come out of maintenance season, crude demand increases. Remember refiners demand crude, not consumers. I have almost no modeled US growth for the remainder of 2024. As long as the Brent - WTI spread remains above $4, US crude exports should remain high. Putting those numbers together, I model crude draws until fall maintanence.
> “Crude supplies should have peaked for the year.”
In your graphs where you make this comment, I don’t see how you come to that conclusion, with most later months on each year timeline trending higher later. What am I missing?
Apologies for the late response. I need to turn on notifications for comments.
Ignore 2020. The COVID year was anomalous. 2022 had the enormous SPR draw which will not be repeated.
As we come out of maintenance season, crude demand increases. Remember refiners demand crude, not consumers. I have almost no modeled US growth for the remainder of 2024. As long as the Brent - WTI spread remains above $4, US crude exports should remain high. Putting those numbers together, I model crude draws until fall maintanence.